EASAN KATIR      530 320 3287

Shopping for Yield

Every Monday morning I go shopping.  Not for groceries.  I shop in the biggest market on the planet:  the $51 trillion US Treasury bond market. I find the juiciest profits on the yield curve and add that to client accounts.  Currently the ripest yield is more than 5%.  Profits this high have not been available for sixteen years, so this is an extraordinary opportunity for high yield with what many consider the safest investment in the world. 


The US bond yield curve is a graphical representation of the yields of US Treasury bonds of varying maturities. It plots the yields of US Treasury bonds of varying maturities on the y-axis and the corresponding maturities on the x-axis. Usually the US bond yield curve slopes upwards, reflecting the fact that longer maturities typically offer higher yields than shorter maturities. This is because investors demand a higher return for taking on the additional risk of a longer-term investment. The US bond yield curve is a useful representation of the current market conditions, as it can indicate whether the market is in an expansionary or contractionary phase. In an expansionary phase, the yield curve typically slopes upwards, reflecting the fact that investors are more willing to take on additional risk. In a contractionary phase -- now -- the yield curve typically slopes downwards, indicating that investors are less willing to take on additional risk. In conclusion, the US bond yield curve is a graphical representation of the yields of US Treasury bonds of varying maturities, and is useful for indicating the current market conditions. It typically slopes upwards, reflecting the fact that longer maturities typically offer higher yields than shorter maturities.

Yes, now the normal yield curve is inverted. An inverted yield curve is a graphical representation of the yields of US Treasury bonds of varying maturities which slopes downwards, instead of upwards. This is because investors are demanding a higher return for taking on the additional risk of a shorter-term investment, rather than a longer-term investment. An inverted yield curve is often seen as a leading indicator of a potential recession, as it signals that investors are more cautious and risk-averse. It is also seen as an indication that the current market conditions are in a contractionary phase, as investors are less willing to take on additional risk. An inverted yield curve is a graphical representation of the yields of US Treasury bonds of varying maturities which slopes downwards, instead of upwards, and is often seen as a leading indicator of a potential recession. It is an indication that the current market conditions are in a contractionary phase, as investors are less willing to take on additional risk.  This chart is a visual display of the 10-year US treasury note yield minus the 1-year US treasury bill, another way of showing the current inverted yield curve.



Do You want to watch the market all day?

That's what we do, so you don't have to.  Perhaps you've tried watching each market move. It's fun for awhile; then, not so much.  That's our mission, which we do each day for clients' benefit.  So we find good investments early in the ever-changing market and recognize business cycles that we've seen before and know how to respond.

We go further.  In August, we travel to Jackson Wyoming while the Fed conducts their annual Symposium.  Pictured here is the 'Troika', Powell, Brainard and Williams. The Fed has a great influence on investments, so it's good to talk in person and learn their views.




What to do now, after the SVB bank run

Now is the time to protect and conserve cash.   Open an account and we will invest in US Treasury bills paying 5% plus with up to one-year maturities, insured for $500,000 by the SIPC.  To open an account, text or call 530 320 3287 with your name and email, and we will send you an application.

While we waited patiently in cash, the markets lost $40 trillion

January 2023 ~ The stock and bond markets lost $40 trillion since the peak in January 2022, according to Bespoke.com. How much is that? The total US GDP was $21.4 trillion in 2021, so $40 trillion is almost double the value of the total goods and services in the country. It is the largest dollar loss ever experienced by market investors.  

We called the top on January 16th, 2022 thanks to our proprietary algorithm, and allocated to cash. So, we preserved wealth during that bear market.